v2 Hybrid: XGBoost · Vol Scaling · Persistence Gate · Market State Gate · $10M Notional · Monthly Rebalance
Walk-Forward Equity Curve (159 Rebalances, Oct 2012 – Dec 2025)
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Current Portfolio Signal
Long Book: GW + GL (top 15 by |12-1 mom|)
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Short Book: BW + BL (top 15 by |12-1 mom|)
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GL Quadrant: Primary Alpha Source
Bottom-Decile Reversal Effect
GL is the largest single alpha source (+1.67%/mo); the bottom-decile reversal trade exceeds GW (+1.58%/mo), driving a positive L/S spread (+0.56%/mo). XGB probability spread (GW−GL) = +0.0012, the model acts as a volatility-regime filter, not a stock picker; GL alpha is structural rather than predictive. In the v2 hybrid, the persistence gate drops the GL leg when its 2-month realized return turns negative, concentrating capital in GW during those windows.
Regime Note: